Published: October, 2010 on PIMCO
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The New Normal has a new set of rules. What once pumped asset prices and favored the production of paper, as opposed to things, is now in retrograde.
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The hard cold reality from Stan Druckenmiller’s “old normal” is that prosperity and overconsumption was driven by asset inflation that in turn was leverage and interest rate correlated.
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Investors are faced with 2.5% yielding bonds and stocks staring straight into new normal real growth rates of 2% or less. There is no 8% there for pension funds. There are no stocks for the long run at 12% returns.
So the hedgies are in retreat and, in some cases, on the run. Ken Griffin at Citadel is considering cutting fees, and Stan Druckenmiller at Duquesne/ex-Soros is packing his bags for the golf course. Frustrated at his inability to replicate the accustomed 30% annualized returns that his business model and expertise produced over the past several decades, Stan is throwing in the towel. Who’s to blame him? I don’t. I respect him, not only for his financial wizardry, but his philanthropy which includes not only writing big checks, but spending lots of time with personal causes such as the Harlem Children’s Zone. And at 57, he’s certainly learned how to smell more roses, pick more daisies, and replace more divots than yours truly has at the advancing age of 66. So way to go Stan. Enjoy.
